181GW of On-Site Gas Power Planned for AI Datacentres, BNEF Finds

AI datacentre developers have proposed 181GW of on-site gas-fired generation across the US, UK and mainland Europe — almost four times Great Britain's total peak electricity demand — according to BloombergNEF research published Wednesday.

The number matters because it separates what's actually announced from what grids can absorb. Developers are turning to their own fossil fuel plants because grid connection queues stretch for years, and the report's authors frame the outcome as a race between interconnection speeds and emissions lock-in.

How much carbon is on the table?

If the planned rollout happens, on-site gas plants would emit roughly 345 million metric tonnes of CO2-equivalent per year in the US alone, where 90% of the proposed capacity sits. BNEF puts that on par with the annual greenhouse gas output of about 72.8 million fossil fuel cars.

The demand driving it is not small. By 2035, BNEF predicts AI datacentre electricity consumption will nearly quadruple to 2,354 terawatt-hours — 7% of global electricity demand. That figure covers servers, cooling equipment and facility systems.

Mark Daly, head of datacentres and emerging tech at BloombergNEF, said: "The extraordinary economics around AI are making speed to power one of the most important priorities for defining constraints on datacentre developers."

He added: "The climate outcome will depend not only on how much electricity these facilities use, but on how quickly grids can connect them and whether power systems add cleaner generation alongside that demand."

The takeaway: the emissions question hinges on grid build-out, not datacentre efficiency.

Are these plants really temporary?

Developers say the gas stations are stopgaps while they wait for grid connections. Daly isn't convinced the economics will let them switch off. Once the plants are online, generating on-site can remain cheaper than drawing from the grid, creating what he calls a longer-term fossil-fuel lock-in risk.

BNEF's report is blunt on the fix: connecting new datacentres to the grid is the more sustainable option, and faster connections are crucial to limiting both emissions and lock-in.

What is happening in the UK?

The UK offers the clearest test case. Planned datacentres made more than 100 inquiries in 2024-25 to connect to gas, according to Future Energy Networks, the representative body for UK gas networks — a direct consequence of electricity grid delays.

Two sites illustrate the trend. Wapseys Wood in Buckinghamshire and Quest Park in Bedfordshire are both seeking to build their own on-site gas-fired power stations while they wait for grid connections. Both are among the first projects fast-tracked through the government's nationally significant infrastructure project regime, which lets developers deliver major infrastructure quickly by bypassing locally elected planning authorities.

The pattern is set to widen. Chancellor John Healey has green-lit datacentres building and running temporary on-site fossil fuel power stations while they wait for grid connections, under a so-called datacentre covenant.

Oliver Hayes, head of policy and campaigns at Global Action Plan, said: "Private gas power stations for datacentres should be a red line for any government serious about climate action, so it's shocking to see the chancellor give them his explicit backing."

He added: "No one seriously believes these gas power stations will be temporary – once they're built, they'll lock in high emissions for years."

What happens next?

The report landed as leaders gathered in Turkey for the 31st UN climate summit, where electrification from clean sources sits at the centre of the agenda. Several key European leaders, including from France and Germany, are skipping Cop31 for Dublin, where EU leaders hold their first dedicated AI summit on Friday.

That split says a lot: AI infrastructure policy and climate policy are now running on parallel tracks, and the 181GW question is where they collide. The milestone to watch is whether grid connection timelines — not gas permitting — become the binding constraint before the bulk of that capacity gets built.