Africa Could Host 400 Million Tonnes of Annual CO2 Removal, RMI Estimates

Africa could support an additional 400 million tonnes of annual carbon removal through synthetic approaches, including direct air capture (DAC), according to research by RMI — a scale that puts the continent on the map for carbon removal developers even as financing and regulatory gaps hold projects back.

That figure framed discussions at COP31, where experts sized up Africa's potential as a DAC market. The continent's advantages are material: renewable energy resources and substantial geological storage potential, according to Mak Dukan, scientific lead of Germany's DACStorE research project. Ethiopia stood out as a particularly attractive market because of its relatively low costs and development opportunities. Kenya drew recognition for its growing interest in DAC deployment.

The numbers on the table are big. Getting there is the hard part.

What stands between the resource and the market?

Three barriers came up repeatedly: access to financing, thin regulatory frameworks, and low public awareness.

Financing sits at the top of the list. Higher costs of capital across African markets make projects harder to develop, which raises the importance of financial risk-sharing mechanisms and investment partnerships. In plain terms, DAC plants in Africa will pay more for money than rivals elsewhere unless someone shares the risk.

The regulatory side is nearly blank. National climate plans across the continent contain no dedicated DAC provisions, and participants flagged the need to explore appropriate pathways under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement — the mechanism that governs international carbon markets.

Then there's awareness. Ernest Ofori, executive director of Emerging Climate Frontiers, put a stark number on it: 90% of people in Africa have not heard of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). He identified education as a priority, including dedicated curricula to build understanding of carbon removal technologies.

What is Kenya's government actually doing?

Dr. Eng. Isaac Kiva, secretary for renewable energy at Kenya's Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, discussed drawing local engineering expertise into DAC deployment, building technical capabilities and forming partnerships.

Asked whether the government plans to support DAC companies and potential clusters, he was direct: "Yes, plant visits are coming and we are looking for ways to contribute and involve the state."

Kiva said a working group will develop safety guidelines, with a roundtable involving regulators, government and startups also in the works. "We want to create momentum and government to act as a facilitator," he added.

That's a facilitator role, not a funding commitment — but it signals the state intends to clear the path rather than watch from the sidelines.

Is there built capacity to point at?

Some, and it's early. Kenya's Rift Valley hosts emerging DAC projects, including Octavia Carbon's Project Hummingbird, which pairs atmospheric CO2 capture with permanent mineral storage in basalt geology. It's a demonstration of the storage side of the equation actually working on African ground.

On the research side, Germany's DACStorE project offers a reference point for international collaboration. Coordinated through Forschungszentrum Jülich and partner institutions, the initiative examines technologies and pathways for capturing CO2 directly from the atmosphere and storing it in geological formations.

Beyond Kenya, proposals from the COP31 discussions included a regional working group, technical training programs and stronger government involvement in advancing DAC projects across the continent.

What decides what happens next?

The 400-million-tonne estimate is a ceiling, not a forecast. Converting Africa's natural advantages — cheap renewables, storage geology, low-cost markets like Ethiopia — into an operating carbon removal industry depends on whether four things develop together: technical expertise, financing, public awareness and supportive policy.

The near-term milestones to watch are concrete: Kenya's safety-guideline working group and its regulator-government-startup roundtable, the arrival of plant visits promised by Kiva's ministry, and any move to write DAC provisions into national climate plans or Article 6 pathways.

If those land, the financing conversation gets easier. If they stall, the 400 million tonnes stays on paper.