Alberta's Pathways Plus carbon capture project — now estimated at CAD 20-30 billion, up from an original CAD 16.5 billion — reaches a binding obligations deadline on November 15, 2026, and residents along its 650-kilometre CO2 pipeline route say no one has consulted them.

"Industry and government have had two years to answer our questions, and they still haven't," Amil Shapka of No CO2 Pipelines Alberta said in a statement to DeSmog.

On July 2, 2026, Canada's federal government and the government of Alberta signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Oil Sands Alliance, the consortium of Canada's five largest oil sands producers formerly known as the Pathways Alliance. The MOU set November 15, 2026, as the date for both levels of government and the member companies to sign binding obligations advancing the project. Pathways Plus couples a new oil pipeline to Canada's Pacific coast with the Pathways carbon capture build-out: a 650-kilometre carbon dioxide pipeline network across Northeastern Alberta, terminating at a sequestration site near Cold Lake.

What does the consultation record actually show?

The Oil Sands Alliance's own project fact sheet, published in March 2026, mentions public consultation a dozen times as a crucial factor in maintaining relationships with affected communities. The same document lists the consultation and engagement process as "ongoing." Alain Moore, the alliance's director of communications, did not respond to a request for comment.

Rural landowners and Indigenous coalition members say they have received little information and no updates since the July MOU announcement. Jesse Cardinal, executive director of Keepers of the Water, said her organization had to initiate contact with the federal government. "We have had no response. We are going to Ottawa next month to speak with some government representatives about CCUS and will have a better idea of [a] response then," she said.

The coalition protested outside the Carbon Capture Canada convention in Edmonton in mid-September, Canada's largest CCS technology expo, where government officials, industry representatives and technology advocates met. Roughly two dozen coalition members attended.

"We came out today because while industry insiders are toasting an unproven technology behind these doors, real people's rights are being signed away outside them," said Nigel Robinson, a representative of Keepers of the Water and No CO2 Pipelines Alberta.

"This is a decision that could trample [First Nations'] Treaty rights and bulldoze the consent of the Indigenous communities whose land this pipeline would cross," Robinson added.

How much CO2 will the project capture?

The project's promised capture volume has dropped notably — by about half, per DeSmog's prior reporting — though Oil Sands Alliance president Kendall Dilling told conference attendees the reduction made the project only "slightly smaller." Asked later, Dilling framed it as a matter of timing rather than capacity.

Even with the reduction, the pipeline and sequestration infrastructure requirements could place Pathways among the largest carbon capture projects in the world.

What are the safety and permitting gaps?

Coalition concerns center on pipeline integrity: leak potential, rupture and explosion. Two incidents anchor the risk record:

• Lake Nyos, Cameroon, 1986: a limnic eruption released 100,000-300,000 tonnes of concentrated CO2, killing nearly 1,800 people and roughly 3,500 cattle within a 25-kilometre radius.
• Satartia, Mississippi, February 2020: a ruptured CO2 pipeline released over 31,000 barrels, hospitalizing more than 40 people and forcing the evacuation of about 300 residents.

The coalition also says the Pathways project lacks cleanup plans and has not undergone an environmental assessment.

Is the money actually there?

Financing remains the project's largest obstacle, and a final investment decision is far from secured. Dilling told Reuters the companies target late 2027 for an FID — two years after the November 2026 binding obligations are due to be signed.

"Carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects in the oil and gas sector are highly expensive and often underperform," said Steven Haig, policy advisor with the International Institute for Sustainable Development's Energy Program. "Despite decades of experience with the technology, the sector has not demonstrated that it can scale CCS as promised. Given that oil and gas production is currently Canada's largest source of carbon pollution, CCS projects cannot be relied on to significantly offset emissions from the industry now or in the future."

The decision points now stack tightly: the November 15 signing deadline, the overdue consultation process the alliance itself labels "ongoing," and a late-2027 investment decision that will determine whether 650 kilometres of CO2 pipeline and the Cold Lake sequestration hub get built at all.