Australia rooftop solar registrations hit 3,138 MW through October

By Olivia Hart

Australia registered 3,138 MW of new rooftop solar capacity from January through October 2026, according to SunWiz, the highest year-to-date total in the market analyst’s records.

That total stands 41% above the same point in 2025. SunWiz managing director Warwick Johnston said: “The January-October tally of 3,138 MW is the highest on record, running 41% ahead of the same point in 2025.”

October itself registered 304.8 MW, up 1.07%, or 3.2 MW, from September’s 301 MW. It was the second consecutive monthly increase and the strongest October in the four years covered by the series.

August had fallen 11.5% to 285 MW. October stood about 16% above October 2025’s 262 MW.

The 3.2 MW monthly gain was modest beside the 41% year-to-date lead, but it extended the recovery after August’s contraction. The headline gain was not evenly shared.

Which states drove October’s gain?

SunWiz’s state data put Victoria first in percentage growth at 10.8%. Western Australia followed at 5.3%, and New South Wales rose 4.5%.

Every other state and territory fell:

• Northern Territory: down 17.1%
• Australian Capital Territory: down 9.1%
• Queensland: down 7.7%
• South Australia: down 5.8%
• Tasmania: down 2.8%

NSW remained October’s volume leader at 89.9 MW, ahead of Queensland at 75.8 MW and Victoria at 60.2 MW. Its margin over Queensland widened from about 4 MW to 14 MW.

Queensland still ranked second despite its 7.7% decline, while Victoria ranked third despite leading percentage growth. Victoria supplied the acceleration, but NSW supplied the volume.

What changed in the commercial market?

Johnston said the commercial market moved in opposite directions while it awaited registration of 1 MW of small-scale technology certificates. NSW, Victoria and WA posted growth, while all other states and territories recorded declines in commercial volumes above 50 kW.

“15-20 kW posted the standout gain, up 6.7% (about +3.0 MW), followed by 20-30 kW (+5.2%), 30-50 kW (+2.7%) and 0-15 kW (+1.0%), though the larger commercial bands saw a downward trend, with 75-100 kW down 42% and 50-75 kW down 24%,” Johnston said.

Below 50 kW, every listed band grew. Above 50 kW, the two largest reported categories declined sharply. The monthly data therefore divide the commercial market by scale rather than showing a uniform rise.

Small systems grew while larger commercial installations contracted.

What does the shift in system size show?

The 10-15 kW band remained the market’s backbone at 115.8 MW, more than double both the 6-8 kW segment at 49.7 MW and the 15-20 kW segment at 47.4 MW.

Combined volume for 20-100 kW systems fell to 32.3 MW from 35 MW. That was the lowest October in the four years shown and about 25% below the 42-43 MW recorded across 2023-2025.

Johnston said the national average system size rose to 10.05 kW from 9.88 kW. It moved back above 10 kW for the first time since April, though it remained below April’s 11.75 kW and December’s 12.10 kW.

Read together, the figures show a broad base of smaller installations and less volume in larger systems. That is not the same as a uniform rise across the commercial segment.

Smaller installations set the pace while the average stayed below its cited highs.

What decides the next turn?

The next market checkpoint is the pending registration of 1 MW of small-scale technology certificates, which Johnston said the commercial market is waiting on.

The decisive test is whether growth in the 10-50 kW bands can continue while installations above 50 kW remain weak. One monthly data point cannot settle that.

The pending STC registration is the next test for the commercial market.