Brazil Publishes Fossil Fuel and Deforestation Roadmaps Ahead of COP31

Forest finance needs to more than triple, from $84.5 billion in 2023 to over $300 billion per year by 2030. That figure anchors one of two voluntary roadmaps COP30 host Brazil released in the lead-up to COP31, laying out global strategies for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems and halting and reversing deforestation by 2030.

The documents deliver on a commitment the COP30 presidency made at the close of last year's summit in Belém, where several countries unsuccessfully pushed to include a reference to a fossil fuel transition roadmap in the final agreement. With no deal on that language — and no mention of ending deforestation — Brazil's presidency pledged to produce science-based roadmaps within a year. Both sit outside the UN system and remain voluntary.

The stakes are numerical. The COP30 Presidency attributes 75% of global greenhouse gas emissions to energy and 11% to forest loss.

What does the fossil fuel roadmap propose?

The centerpiece is what the document calls the Belém Readiness Approach — a framework for examining countries' exposure to fossil fuels and their capacity to manage the transition. It works across complementary pillars:

• Energy demand: energy use in transport, industry and buildings
• Supply: how fossil fuel production adapts as low-emissions energy systems expand and demand declines
• The broader economy: fiscal dependence, investment, the cost of capital and price signals

The roadmap flags the sequencing problem explicitly: cuts in fossil fuel production must match declining demand while low-emissions energy systems expand fast enough to keep energy reliable and affordable. In plain terms, supply can't fall faster than the replacement build-out.

Three proposals carry the document. First, countries, subnational governments and sectors should start now, using the Belém Readiness Approach to assess their circumstances and identify priorities. Second, a collective agenda should launch to accelerate coordinated action in this decade. Third, international dialogue and cooperation should be sustained through future COP presidencies and the Global Stocktake.

The takeaway: the roadmap asks governments to run the diagnostic before the transition, not after.

How does the deforestation roadmap work?

The forest document covers a wider base than tropical basins alone — tropical, subtropical, temperate and boreal forests, plus forest-related ecosystems such as peatlands and mangroves. It also targets forest degradation, which strips forests of their capacity to store carbon, regulate water, support biodiversity and sustain livelihoods.

Five complementary action areas structure national strategies:

• conservation
• sustainable forest management, agroforestry and bioeconomy
• combating forest degradation
• combating deforestation
• restoration, reforestation and afforestation

A series of proposals sits underneath: improving forest information and monitoring systems, strengthening technical assistance and capacity-building, combating transnational environmental crime, and promoting trade incentives that reward sustainable and deforestation-free production.

Where does the money come from?

The roadmap identifies finance as one of the largest implementation gaps. It cites UNEP research putting required annual forest finance at more than $300 billion per year by 2030, up from $84.5 billion in 2023 — roughly a 3.5x increase in seven years.

The document surveys a broad range of international forest financing mechanisms, including REDD+ and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, and finds that many existing instruments operate below their potential. Its prescription: scale the financing, improve access, and reward countries and communities for conservation and sustainable forest management.

That's the gap the whole document hangs on — the mechanisms exist, but the money flowing through them doesn't match the stated 2030 target.

What happens next?

Both roadmaps are voluntary and outside the UN negotiating track, so nothing binds any government to act. The documents themselves point to the test ahead: sustained cooperation through future COP presidencies and the Global Stocktake, and COP31 — where Brazil's presidency will find out whether its year of homework converts into commitments with teeth.