Carbon Credit Buyers Pay Triple for Quality, But Delivery Timing Goes Unpriced

Target portfolio prices for carbon credits have roughly tripled since 2022, according to Boston Consulting Group's latest survey of about 300 buyers, yet the market still leaves one variable almost entirely unpriced: whether the tonnes will exist when buyers need them.

The survey, reviewed by Gevo Chief Carbon Officer Alex Clayton, quantifies a persistent supply gap. BCG estimates buyers would spend roughly $800 million more per year if enough credits met their quality requirements. Average target budgets sit at $58 a tonne, just $3 above current portfolio costs but well below the $79 a tonne needed to match stated quality preferences. Budgets, BCG found, are already fully utilized.

What does quality mean to buyers?

BCG defines carbon integrity as "whether a credit's climate impact is reliably measurable and verifiable." Buyers weigh trusted registries and rigorous measurement above all other criteria, the survey found.

Timing, Clayton argues, deserves equal scrutiny. A tonne removed in 2026 starts working immediately, while a tonne promised for the 2030s does nothing until it arrives. The market has so far left that difference largely unpriced.

A practical gap compounds the physical one. A signed contract gives a buyer the right to a tonne, but the buyer cannot claim the impact until the CO2 has been captured and stored, the data packaged, a third party has audited it, the registry has issued the credit, and the credit has been transferred. Many portfolios are modeled on the delivery date set at signing. The date that matters is when the tonnes can be retired, and the two often drift meaningfully apart.

Where does the workable middle ground sit?

Direct air capture suppliers' median ask runs about $900 a tonne, and fewer than one in 10 buyers would consider it at that price, BCG found. BECCS and biochar rank among the credit types buyers find most credible. BCG places them in a "workable middle ground," where roughly three-quarters of buyers would consider them at prices suppliers are asking. That middle ground is also where verified tonnes are available today.

Clayton recommends three portfolio actions for buyers:

• Re-cut the portfolio by delivery year, adjusting tonnes for delivery risk, before signing new contracts.
• Set a floor on already-delivering supply — a fixed share of the portfolio from projects that have already issued credits on a public registry.
• Re-underwrite delivery annually, checking issuance history against prior vintages, the most recent third-party audit, and whether the contracted schedule still matches the project's regulatory filings. Projects with a permitting footprint usually publish monitoring data independently of the developer.

"If a supplier can't show issuance against a previous vintage, what you're holding is a forecast, and you should treat it like one," Clayton wrote.

Which projects already deliver?

BCG found buyers prefer diversified portfolios, with durable engineered removals making up roughly a fifth to a quarter of the mix. An anchor of removal already running and independently verified makes that diversification work, Clayton argued, because a corporate buyer can take more risk elsewhere knowing a core of tonnes will be ready to retire.

Gevo's Richardton, North Dakota, project illustrates the model. Since 2022, it has captured biogenic CO2 from ethanol fermentation and injected it into a Class VI well on the same site. The project holds an A rating from BeZero Carbon, and more than 620,000 credits have been issued as CO2 Removal Certificates (CORCs) on Puro.earth.

In September, Whirlpool added durable removal from the project to a carbon removal portfolio managed by ClimeFi, alongside three other pathways. A cooperative of more than 300 area farmers built the plant, creating a local market for their corn and community infrastructure.

The next contracting cycle will test the forward market. A spot plus three-year forward contract could cover deliveries from 2027 through 2030, with in-year spot delivery proving capability and the forward offtake securing tonnes for the years that matter.