Fossil CO2 set to fall 0.4% in 2026 as carbon budget shrinks

By Daniel Okafor

What do the 2026 carbon numbers show?

Global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are forecast to edge down 0.4% to 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, even as total CO2 emissions rise to 43.3 billion tonnes from 42.8 billion in 2025.

The Global Carbon Budget, an annual assessment by scientists at scores of universities and science institutions worldwide, supports that flat forecast. The team presented its findings on Tuesday morning at the Cop31 climate talks in Antalya, Turkey, and published the assessment in the journal Earth System Science Data.

Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and not involved in the research, said:

“The picture from the Global Carbon Budget is a flatline, not a decline – a projected fall of just 0.4% in 2026, a figure that is unfortunately statistically indistinguishable from zero.”

Glen Peters, a research professor at the Cicero Centre for International Climate Research, said:

“A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak, unless it is driven by structural change. Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions.”

Takeaway: Fossil emissions are nearly unchanged, and one year of slight improvement cannot yet establish a lasting global peak.

Why are fossil emissions easing?

Emissions from burning oil are forecast to fall 2% as motorists economise on fuel use and move toward electric vehicles. The war in Iran has pushed oil and gas prices higher, giving consumers and power systems a stronger incentive to seek alternatives.

Cheap solar and wind power also play a central role. Global energy demand continues to rise as more people gain access to electricity and move out of poverty, but the scientists say solar, wind and electric vehicles meet two-thirds of that increase.

Deforestation and the conversion of wild land to agriculture move the global total in the other direction. Major fires in southeast Asia and further agricultural conversion raised land-use emissions enough to more than offset the projected fossil decline, pushing total CO2 higher despite the 0.4% drop in fossil emissions.

Takeaway: The forecast fossil dip does not translate into lower total CO2 because land-use emissions rise.

How much room is left below 1.5C?

The remaining carbon budget stood at about 150 billion tonnes, the amount scientists say the atmosphere can absorb before warming becomes likely to permanently exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. At current emission rates, that allowance lasts less than four years.

Global temperatures have already exceeded the 1.5C threshold for more than two years, while El Niño conditions have warmed the air and seas further. Peters said global emissions must peak imminently and then fall rapidly in subsequent years to limit the temperature overshoot.

Hare expects a sustained breach of 1.5C around 2030 and says the imminent overshoot should prompt decisive government action. Faster renewable investment and wider deployment of low-carbon technology, including electric vehicles, remain necessary for durable annual reductions.

India’s intensified coal expansion, an easing of oil prices and US President Donald Trump’s support for fossil fuels could disrupt the trend. Lower fuel prices would reduce the incentive for drivers to conserve fuel or switch to electric vehicles, while renewed coal and oil production would weaken the projected decline.

Takeaway: The carbon budget offers less than four years at current rates, so delay now magnifies the temperature overshoot.

Which countries drive the split?

China, the world’s largest greenhouse-gas emitter, is likely to cut its carbon output by close to 1% in 2026. The projected decline follows a 5% reduction in oil use after the Iran war. Peters said China has held emissions roughly flat for several years after a steep increase in the previous decade.

He cautioned that a one-off fall followed by a rebound remains possible, making it too early to declare a firm peak. India presents the opposite pattern: strong emissions growth, driven mainly by increased coal use, alongside a slight decline in oil consumption.

US emissions are likely to fall about 1.3% in 2026 as coal use declines, despite Trump’s attempts to boost the fuel. The forecast therefore captures short-term fuel switching and changes in power generation, but it does not remove the risk of a stronger fossil-fuel push.

Takeaway: China and the US point lower in 2026, while rising Indian coal demand and policy reversals cloud any durable global peak.

Can Cop31 turn the flatline into a decline?

More than 90 heads of state and government, plus high-level representatives from more than 190 countries, have gathered in Antalya for a fortnight of climate talks. Hare said the gathering showed little sign of stronger action to build on the commitment made three years ago to transition away from fossil fuels.

He singled out Canada, the US and New Zealand for rolling back climate policies, and Australia, a Cop31 co-president, for continuing to promote major coal and gas developments that keep fossil-fuel CO2 emissions at record levels. Turkey and Australia co-lead the talks.

The contrast between current operating trends and government policy matters for energy markets. Cheap renewable generation and electric vehicle adoption already affect 2026 fuel demand, but coal expansion in India and fossil-fuel developments in Australia can sustain emissions beyond this year’s forecast.

Takeaway: The decisive milestone is whether Cop31 governments strengthen the three-year-old transition-away commitment; without decisive action, the 0.4% fossil decline risks reversing before the 150-billion-tonne carbon budget closes.