U.S. heat pump shipments held strong through the first half of 2026, and the technology is on track to match or exceed its best year on record, according to a recent report from the Building Decarbonization Coalition. The nonprofit drew its figures from shipment data published by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute, the trade group that covers most of the U.S. market.

The resilience comes in spite of a direct policy hit. The 25C federal tax credit, which cut up to $2,000 off the price of a heat pump, expired at the end of 2025 — seven years earlier than the deadline the Biden administration had set. President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans eliminated the credit along with incentives for rooftop solar, batteries, and other clean energy technologies.

What does this change for the equipment stream?

For the heating and cooling supply chain, the numbers suggest federal subsidies were never the primary demand driver. Lucas Davis, a business professor at the University of California, Berkeley, advanced that hypothesis in a blog post earlier this year.

"I suspect most households adopted heat pumps without ever knowing anything about the credit, or didn't learn about the tax credit until months later when filing their taxes," Davis wrote. Previous research, he noted, shows heat pump adoption in the U.S. tracks geography, climate, and electricity prices. "It may simply be that these factors are much more important than subsidies for driving adoption behavior."

Contractors appear to confirm the pattern. Industry publication ACHR News reported repeatedly that installers, not customers, usually raised the tax credit during sales conversations.

Where demand still finds support

State and utility incentives remain available to households in parts of the country, and many local governments continue to enforce ordinances that push buildings off fossil fuels. Contractors have also grown more familiar with the technology over recent years, which shortens installation timelines and reduces friction at the point of sale.

The contrast with adjacent technologies is stark. Rooftop solar has shown signs of struggle in the post-tax-credit era, as has the electric vehicle market. Heat pumps stand alone as the bright spot among technologies that lost federal support in the same legislative sweep.

What to watch next

Barring a dramatic shift in consumer behavior, 2026 is set to be a very good year for heat pump shipments. The final annual tally from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute — the number that will confirm or break the record — is the milestone that decides whether the subsidy-free demand thesis holds.