IndexBox has set a 2035 horizon for its new carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) market forecast, with industrial decarbonization demand named as the primary growth accelerator.

The publication — "Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage Market Forecast to 2035: Industrial Decarbonization Demand to Accelerate Growth" — enters a market intelligence field already served by the IEA, BloombergNEF, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad. IndexBox's framing places hard-to-abate process emissions at the center of the demand outlook.

What does IndexBox claim as the demand driver?

The forecast identifies industrial decarbonization pressure as the accelerator behind CCUS uptake through 2035. Cement, steel, chemicals and refining emit process CO2 that resists electrification-based mitigation. Capturing that CO2 at existing facilities — rather than replacing those assets — fits operators' capital recovery timelines and aligns with regulatory pressure to extend asset life while cutting emissions.

That pressure now rests on compliance deadlines rather than voluntary commitments. The EU ETS, the UK's cluster sequencing process, the U.S. 45Q tax credit and Japan's contracted CCUS subsidy framework all set horizons that pull forward capture investment decisions.

How does the report segment the market?

CCUS forecasting models typically divide the value chain into four tiers:

• Capture — point-source equipment and operations at industrial facilities
• Transport — pipeline and ship logistics moving CO2 from source to sink
• Utilization — conversion of captured CO2 into synthetic fuels, building materials or chemicals
• Storage — permanent geological injection in saline aquifers or depleted reservoirs

Each tier carries a distinct cost stack, permitting regime and competitive set. The circular-economy intersection sits primarily in utilization, where mineralization routes can consume industrial waste streams — steel slag, fly ash, mining tailings — as feedstock for carbonation reactions. That sub-segment remains small but attracts continued pilot investment.

Why does this matter for waste and recycling operators?

CCUS deployment reshapes industrial input and output streams rather than eliminating them. Cement plants equipped with capture consume larger volumes of alternative fuels — processed municipal waste, refuse-derived fuel, biomass — to displace kiln coal. Steelworks running CCUS shift slag chemistry profiles into potentially new downstream applications. Chemical operators using captured CO2 as feedstock open offtake channels for electrolytic hydrogen and renewable electricity.

Capture retrofits carry material energy penalties and solvent replacement costs that compete with alternative-fuel investments for the same capital budget. Plants running fuel switching and capture simultaneously must sequence the work; either path alone leaves a residual emissions baseline.

Track the industrial clusters and the permitting cadence, not the corporate net-zero pledges.

What is the next milestone?

The binding constraint on converting announced CCUS capacity into operating throughput is permitting: storage site classification, CO2 pipeline rights-of-way, and cross-border transport agreements. Decision points to watch include EU storage licensing rounds, U.S. EPA Class VI well permit cadence, and UK Track-1 cluster financial close progress.

Industrial CCUS hubs — co-located capture sources, transport corridors and either utilization offtakers or storage sites — consolidate waste inputs, captured CO2 and downstream product manufacturing within a single permitting zone. The first hubs in the U.K., U.S. Gulf Coast and Rotterdam are either commissioning or under construction today. Their operating data through 2026 and 2027 will determine whether the IndexBox 2035 trajectory tracks the announced pipeline or requires downward revision.

Those dates — not corporate announcements — will decide whether the forecast converts to operating tonnes.