Only 1.2% of contracted carbon removal was delivered in 2025

By Daniel Okafor

The carbon removal sector delivered only 1.2% of contracted durable removal volumes by the end of 2025, according to a June 2026 Grantham Research Institute study. The delivery gap sits behind a COP31 warning in Antalya: companies with climate targets may need to reserve future removals before demand turns immediate.

The panel, hosted by CEEZER and moderated by Dr. Carla Woydt, brought together Matthias Beer of Siemens, Benedict Probst of Net Zero Lab, Lorna Ritchie of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, Antti Vihavainen of Puro.earth and Khushboo Oswal of TÜV SÜD.

Participants warned: "Early offtake agreements could help developers secure financing and bring more durable removal projects online." That argument applies to direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, which can take years to develop.

Why does procurement timing matter?

Companies often make long-term net-zero commitments without a matching procurement strategy. Waiting until removals become an immediate requirement can force buyers to compete for limited capacity while projects still spend years in development and preparation.

Puro.earth’s Antti Vihavainen described the developer side. Projects need credible long-term demand to justify investment in facilities that require substantial capital and years of preparation. Forward purchases can reserve future tonnes and help projects reach financial close.

The discussion did not attach a capacity figure to any new facility; it focused on how buyers can secure future supply. Waiting for perfect price certainty also carries a cost, because companies may find the projects they need already contracted by someone else.

Early contracting can protect a buyer’s delivery position while giving developers the demand they need to finance capacity.

What must buyers verify before signing?

For Siemens, Matthias Beer said procurement must balance price, quality and delivery certainty. The task goes beyond buying credits: buyers need to assess project risk, diversify across removal pathways and ensure contracted tonnes actually arrive.

Lorna Ritchie of the ICVCM focused on credit integrity, including additionality, permanence and reliable measurement. Khushboo Oswal of TÜV SÜD brought verification and digital monitoring, reporting and verification into the discussion.

Without better data and independent checks, buyers have weak grounds for trusting the tonnes they purchase. That concern carries particular weight because the Grantham study found such a large gap between contracted and physically delivered volume.

A cheap credit does not remove delivery, integrity or verification risk.

How are EU rules changing the market?

Europe is moving beyond policy design. Its Carbon Removals and Carbon Farming Certification Framework establishes common rules, while the EU CRCF Buyers’ Club aims to bring buyers and suppliers together and make initial purchases of permanent removals by December 2026.

The panel treated certification and collective purchasing as market-shaping changes rather than background policy. For companies, the club’s target supplies a concrete date for entering the procurement market, including buyers that have set net-zero goals without a matching removal plan.

December 2026 is the next fixed checkpoint for European permanent-removal purchases.

What does $22 billion in market activity show?

MSCI reported that global carbon-market investment and offtake deals reached $22 billion in 2025. The broader market is beginning to reward buyers willing to make longer-term commitments, while forward agreements and pre-purchases accounted for much of the offtake activity.

Participants set a clear boundary: "The message from the panel was not that removals should replace direct emissions cuts." Companies instead need to prepare for residual emissions they cannot eliminate and start building credible supply relationships now.

Separately, Japan Airlines and Climeworks Solutions signed what the source describes as a historic CORSIA-compliant carbon dioxide removal deal. The source gives no contract value or tonnage for that agreement.

The next test comes in December 2026, when the EU Buyers’ Club targets its first permanent-removal purchases; the sector will need physical delivery, not just more contracts, to catch up with its 2025 commitments.