Reported UK EV plan cuts 2030 target from 80% to 60%

The UK’s 2030 electric-vehicle sales target is expected to fall from 80% to about 60%, a cut of roughly one-quarter, according to government sources. The reported dilution would relieve carmakers while reopening a fight over the government’s single biggest decarbonisation policy.

What is ministers likely to change?

Louise Haigh, the de facto deputy prime minister, is expected to approve the package after a Downing Street meeting on Wednesday, ending a dispute among the transport, energy and business departments. Government sources expect it to set the 2030 target at about 60% and extend flexibilities to 2034. Government insiders say Haigh has told colleagues she does not want another reduction request.

The rules, introduced under the last Conservative government, require carmakers to sell only zero-emission vehicles by 2035, with the required share rising gradually to 80% by 2030.

A government spokesperson said: “The government is united in its commitment to the ZEV mandate and no decisions have been taken.

“We are committed to the phaseout of all new cars relying solely on petrol and diesel engines by 2030, and to 100% of new car and van sales being zero emission by 2035, and our legally binding net zero targets.

“Our consultation on the mandate will not change this, and will ensure we are taking a pragmatic and balanced approach to the ZEV transition.”

On the government’s account, the consultation adjusts the route without changing the destination. The distinction is doing substantial work.

Takeaway: For now, 60% is a reported proposal; the 2035 zero-emission endpoint remains the government’s stated policy.

Why is the 80% target under pressure?

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) says the industry will miss this year’s 33% target by a wide margin. Battery EVs accounted for 26.6% of new car sales in the first 10 months of the year. Carmakers have argued for years that inflation and pressure on living standards made interim targets unattainable.

Exemptions soften the apparent breach. Carmakers can avoid fines by selling more hybrids or by making up for lower EV sales with stronger EV sales later.

The stakes extend beyond vehicle assembly. The mandate is expected to create more emissions savings than any other UK policy, accounting for nearly 14% of all reductions the country has pledged between 2028 and 2032.

Ministers have diluted the targets several times since the policy was first proposed and opened another review in August. Its five options were:

• Keep the mandate unchanged at 80%.
• Keep 80% but extend flexibilities by four years to 2034.
• Reduce the interim target to 70%.
• Reduce it to 60%.
• Reduce it to 50%.

The disagreement now sits inside Whitehall. Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds wants the 2030 target cut as far as possible, to 50%. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander is believed to favor about 60%. Energy Secretary Miatta Fahnbulleh and her predecessor, Ed Miliband, are understood to favor 80%.

Prime Minister Andy Burnham would normally settle such a dispute, but he has recused himself because his wife, Marie-France van Heel, advises the board of the Manchester-based EV charging network Be.EV.

Takeaway: Sales data and exemptions weaken the case for an 80% interim level, but the cabinet remains split over how far to move.

What do the political and market responses say?

Timing carries political consequences. Burnham is preparing for his first COP summit as prime minister, where he and Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband will champion electrification globally.

Labour MPs already oppose the approval of the Jackdaw gasfield and cuts to green schemes to fund higher defence spending; they see Rosebank and the ZEV mandate as critical. Many fear a retreat from the green agenda, and the reported cut would also dismay the wider environmental movement.

Lizzi Collinge, Labour MP for Morecambe and Lunesdale, said:

“The upcoming decision on the ZEV [zero emission vehicle] mandate will have a huge climate impact, possibly the biggest one that’s on the PM’s desk.

“But it will also set the direction for tackling the cost of living and helping get our energy prices down over the coming decade.”

Catherine Fookes, MP for Monmouthshire, said:

“The government has some incredibly difficult decisions to make in the coming months and the prime minister will need to weigh up the consequences of each. We need the ZEV mandate to stay, and Rosebank to be rejected.”

Outside Parliament, Mike Hawes, SMMT chief executive, said:

“The gap between demand and mandated targets continues to widen.

“Meaningful change to the trajectory, alongside expanded flexibilities throughout the regulation, is essential to bridge that gap, safeguard jobs and investment while keeping the UK’s zero emission transition on track.”

The EV charging industry relies on high vehicle sales to recoup investment. ChargeUK chief executive Shane Brennan said:

“Weakening the mandate puts £1.7bn of charging infrastructure at risk and all the associated jobs and supply chain spending that goes with it.

“Charging investors’ confidence will be rocked by a third change in three years. Government should be in no way complacent about the long-term implications of being seen to cave to the short-term interest of global car importers.”

Paul McNamee, director of the Labour Climate and Environment Forum, said:

“Significant weakening of the ZEV mandate from the current 80% targets will be seen as a rowing back on climate leadership.

“If the government does this, it must provide assurance that the mandate will not be weakened again in the coming years, the 2035 target for EVs remains in place, and it delivers a robust industrial strategy to build a strong EV manufacturing base in the UK that will protect jobs in the long term.”

Takeaway: Makers want flexibility, charging firms want certainty, and Labour MPs want the 2035 promise left untouched.

What happens next?

Haigh’s approval after Wednesday’s meeting will determine whether the government adopts about 60% for 2030 and extends flexibilities through 2034. The outcome must reconcile that change with the stated 2035 commitment.

Takeaway: Haigh’s sign-off is the regulatory milestone; until then, 60% remains an option, not settled law.