World refined copper production rose about 1.7 percent in the first seven months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, according to preliminary statistics from the Lisbon-based International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Within that total, the split between ore-based and scrap-based supply is widening: primary copper production, using electrolytic and electrowinning technology fed by copper ore, grew just 1 percent, while secondary production using red metal scrap expanded 4.3 percent year on year.

The divergence matters for anyone trading or processing copper scrap. Scrap-fed capacity is gaining share of the refined copper market at a rate roughly four times that of mine-fed capacity, and the growth is concentrated in one jurisdiction.

The People's Republic of China, the world's largest producer of refined copper, increased its output by an estimated 4.6 percent in January through July 2026 compared with the same window in 2025. The ICSG attributes the 4.3 percent global growth in secondary output this year "mainly due to growth in China."

That attribution comes despite a run of recent secondary copper investments in the United States, Europe and other parts of the world — capacity builds that have not yet moved the global production needle. Aurubis AG's Richmond, Virginia operation is among the U.S. projects adding recycled-content copper capacity.

The geography of the numbers is stark. China and the Democratic Republic of Congo both posted increases in refined copper output this year, while the rest of the world saw refined production fall by about 2.5 percent.

Chile recorded the sharpest national decline. Smelter maintenance and other operational constraints cut the country's copper output by 12.5 percent in the first seven months of the year — a reduction large enough to weigh on the global primary balance on its own.

India moved in the opposite direction. A major primary copper investment drove refined copper production in that nation up more than 20 percent in 2026 compared with one year earlier, adding mine-based supply even as scrap-based output grows fastest worldwide.

The figures sketch a market in transition. Secondary production is compounding faster than primary supply, but the incremental tonnes are flowing from Chinese smelters, not from the new recycled-content capacity under construction in North America and Europe. For scrap generators and exporters in those regions, Chinese demand for red metal feedstock remains the swing variable in the scrap copper price.

The ICSG's data are preliminary, drawn from the January–July 2026 reporting window, and subject to revision as national statistics agencies finalize their figures. The next marker: whether full-year 2026 data confirm the trend line and whether U.S. and European secondary capacity ramps fast enough to register in the 2027 balance.