Ukraine and South Africa Emerge as Carbon Storage Frontier Markets

Two numbers framed the CCUS conversation at COP31: a proposed Poland-to-Ukraine CO2 transport corridor backed by three energy companies, and 34 gigatons of onshore storage potential sitting under South African basalt. Both are announced projects, not built capacity — but each carries a concrete regulatory milestone that will decide whether it moves.

What is Ukraine actually proposing?

Naftogaz, Ukrnafta and Cquestra have signed a memorandum of understanding to develop CarpathiaCO2, a cross-border corridor that would carry captured CO2 from Poland's Lubin industrial area to geological storage sites in western Ukraine. At a COP31 panel, the partners confirmed they have submitted an application for European Union Project of Mutual Interest status — the designation that unlocks EU cross-border infrastructure support.

The sequence matters for practitioners. The partners will first assess Ukraine's geological storage potential, including containment and injectivity, before committing capital to pipelines or injection infrastructure. In other words, no FID-scale investment until the subsurface work is done.

The binding constraint is regulatory, not geological. Ukraine still needs a carbon capture and storage framework aligned with EU rules — covering permitting, monitoring and long-term liability transfer. Without that, cross-border CO2 shipments from an EU member state have no legal landing zone.

The upside, as the partners framed it: Ukraine could leapfrog more established storage markets by moving faster on regulation and infrastructure, positioning itself as a regional CO2 hub serving Central European emitters and Europe's broader climate targets.

What does South Africa's project change?

South Africa's Council for Geoscience (CGS) presented its upcoming CCUS project in Mpumalanga — centered on the Govan Mbeki municipality — as a pillar of the country's Just Energy Transition and national decarbonization goals.

The geology is the headline. Basaltic formations in the region offer an estimated 34 gigatons of onshore CO2 storage potential, assessed by Carbfix engineers on a deliberately conservative 2% rock-accessibility assumption. For scale, 34 gigatons is roughly a year of global CO2 emissions — locked into one onshore province.

The technical approach is mineral carbonation at depths of around 1.2 km, permanently converting CO2 into rock. That targets hard-to-abate sectors — coal-fired power, steel and cement — while leaving room to commercialize industrial CO2 applications and direct air capture downstream.

The project has completed its initial feasibility phase, funded by the World Bank, and now runs on state funding to prove the technology before full private-sector involvement. CGS said CCUS will preserve livelihoods and potentially double regional jobs, and could unlock up to $25 billion in carbon asset value at a targeted $50-per-ton benchmark. To put that price in context: it sits well above today's voluntary-market rates, so the value case depends on compliance-grade carbon markets maturing.

CGS also credited extensive community engagement, public advocacy and peer-reviewed research with building local acceptance and scientific confidence.

What happens next?

Both projects now face gatekeeper decisions rather than technical unknowns.

• Ukraine: EU Project of Mutual Interest status — pending — plus passage of an EU-aligned CCS law covering permitting, monitoring and long-term liability.
• South Africa: transition from state-funded technology demonstration to a first pilot injection, then private-sector capital at scale.

For operators and investors tracking storage capacity outside North America and the North Sea, these are the two filings and the one injection date worth diarizing.