US hazardous waste tonnage projected at 37.4 million tons by 2033 as manufacturing reshoring builds steam

U.S. hazardous waste generation could reach 37.4 million tons by 2033, up 5 million tons from 2023, according to a report commissioned by Veolia and written by Charles River Associates. The report warns that a capacity shortfall of just 1% could affect at least $27.5 billion in economic output over that period.

Manufacturing accounts for 4 million tons of the projected increase. New investments in domestic semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceuticals and steel production are driving the additional tonnage, the report finds. Manufacturing generated 90% of U.S. hazardous waste in 2023, followed by transportation.

The tonnage growth tracks a sector already expanding rapidly on the revenue line. Hazardous waste industry revenues nearly tripled from $3.6 billion in 2021 to almost $9 billion in 2023, the report states. The period has also produced a wave of facility investments and consolidation, with Veolia North America among the most active players through multiple acquisitions and an incinerator construction project in Arkansas.

Capacity picture: EPA sees adequacy, report sees friction

The U.S. EPA currently estimates the country has sufficient hazardous waste disposal capacity. But the Veolia-commissioned report flags the long permitting timelines required for new facilities, as well as the potential for disruptive events. It cites the 2023 train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, and extreme weather that can damage waste facilities or affect Superfund sites, generating new volumes.

The report's 2033 estimates could even prove conservative. Steel tariffs and artificial intelligence demand could spur manufacturing investment beyond current projections, adding tonnage above the baseline.

Bob Cappadona, CEO of Veolia's hazardous waste business in North America, said the company has secured several large clients in the reshored manufacturing sectors. Pandemic-era logistics — combined with Winter Storm Uri in 2021 — forced Veolia to rework its U.S. approach.

"The volume of material that was being managed within the hazardous waste network and the capacity to support it got out of sync," during the pandemic, he said.

Incinerator build-out and the manufacturer exit question

Some manufacturers are exiting their own hazardous waste processing operations, which previously absorbed excess volumes onsite. 3M closed a Minnesota incinerator in 2021, and Alcoa sold an Arkansas site to Veolia in 2020.

"I think at times there was an assumption that there was going to be a wave that they're all going to shut down at the same time. We haven't seen that," Cappadona said. "There's some other facilities that are going through similar evaluations."

Veolia is now finalizing a 100,000-ton-per-year hazardous waste incinerator at the former Alcoa site, which the company says will be the first H050-qualified thermal facility in the U.S. Beyond that project, the company is evaluating a potential expansion of its Port Arthur, Texas, incinerator, with no set timeline. Cappadona said Veolia is currently increasing capacity at Port Arthur through processing efficiencies.

Acquisitions remain part of the expansion plan. Cappadona cited two pending deals — one on the East Coast, one on the West — targeted at specific manufacturing waste streams.

The national infrastructure base is thinning at the top. The report counts 17 commercial hazardous waste landfills, 12 energy recovery facilities and 11 incinerators operating in the U.S. The landfill count has declined, with sites owned by Arcwood Environmental, Clean Harbors, Republic Services and Veolia now handling the majority of tonnage. Incinerator projects have picked up in recent years, led by Arcwood, Clean Harbors and Veolia.

Generators planning upstream

The reshoring wave gives manufacturers room to plan waste infrastructure before production starts. Cappadona said some companies are approaching Veolia before breaking ground on new facilities.

"The better decisions that are made at that point of generation have an impact on how that material may be able to be managed post-use of the original generator," he said. One semiconductor client recycles 99% of its waste, due in part to upfront sorting. Solvent recycling and wastewater treatment can in some cases be handled onsite.

Veolia is also evaluating placing its own operations adjacent to a semiconductor manufacturer to cut transportation costs.

On the technology front, Cappadona pushed the sector to look beyond landfill, incineration and fuel blending. He pointed to Veolia's recent investment in an Arizona recycling facility for semiconductor material and the acquisition of a New England medical waste site for biotech material.

"Those are traditional treatment methods. What about the untraditional treatment methods?" he said, noting some projects could be greenfield builds. "I think that's really the target for our group, how do we use those legacy older technologies in combination with some of the newer technologies to meet the demands of industry."

What decides what happens next

The regulatory milestone to watch is EPA's capacity assurance under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act. The agency's latest hazardous waste capacity assessment, released in 2025, found enough permitted capacity for projected volumes through at least 2049 — while encouraging waste minimization and suggesting states "seek ways to develop new incineration and landfill capacity for the future."

An EPA spokesperson said the current capacity assurance expires Dec. 31, 2029. A new assessment will be conducted before that deadline, and its findings — set against the projected 37.4-million-ton generation figure — will determine whether the disposal network keeps pace with the reshoring-driven build-out.