China’s $220bn Clean-Tech Export Machine Sets the Cop31 Agenda

Clean-tech exports from China surpassed $220bn in 2025, and the world's largest emitter now supplies about 85% of global solar manufacturing capacity and 80% of lithium-ion battery supply chains. Those figures frame the debate as Cop31 opens in Turkey, where the central question is whether China will finally assume the climate leadership role it has long avoided.

Former US secretary of state John Kerry told the Guardian that China is leading the world in moving away from fossil fuels and that the rest of the globe, including the US, must now follow. "The only country that has hugely accelerated is China. The rest of the world is stumbling along while Mother Nature is sending us more powerful signals every week, every day," he said.

What does China's pledge change?

China's latest five-year plan, adopted in March 2026, pledged for the first time to "actively participate in and lead global climate governance". Cop31 could offer the first sign that Beijing intends to convert that rhetoric into action, something it has historically been reluctant to do.

The commercial stakes extend well beyond diplomacy. Green energy has become a vital component of the export engine that has kept China's sluggish post-pandemic economy on track, in contrast to its persistent failure to boost domestic consumption. Nearly 75% of electric cars manufactured in 2025 were built in China.

Kerry argued that countries falling behind, including the US under Donald Trump, will lose economically as well as climatologically. "[China] realised suddenly they had way too much dependency on oil and gas from other places, and they decided they needed to be independent," he said, noting that since the war in Iran and interruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, other countries have made similar decisions. "There's been a massive uptick in deployment of renewables. Thank you, Donald Trump."

For states without free elections, spreadsheets will do the persuading, Kerry added. "Even they can read a spreadsheet, and understand where costs are exorbitant [in fossil fuels], and where you have a better deal," he said. "Right now, renewables together with storage, together with some transitional gas, is cheaper and more effective, than just going with fossil fuels."

Kerry's verdict on the broader trajectory: "The marketplace has made its decision and globally is moving to electrons, and electrostate status. It is unstoppable."

Why the supply chain matters geopolitically

China has said it wants Cop31 to discuss the free flow of green technology against a backdrop of "intensifying" geopolitical conflicts — widely read as a reference to US and EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and solar products.

Isabel Hilton, founder of China Dialogue, draws the geopolitical line explicitly. The US dollar's role as the trading currency for oil gave Washington "what has been termed the exorbitant privilege of being the global lender of last resort", she said. "Without that, the US position in the world looks weaker, and if you add China's dominance of the supply of clean technologies and the supply chains that produce them, US dominance looks more vulnerable still."

Beijing frames the transition in harder-headed terms. Kevin Tu of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said China sees the energy transition as "central to economic modernisation and energy security, with significant implications for international influence". The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have only hardened that stance.

President Xi Jinping describes China as a "doer and go-getter working for the cause of global development". State media showcase Chinese renewable projects from Indonesia to Pakistan and Kenya. The value of green energy deals under the Belt and Road Initiative in the first half of 2026 has already surpassed the total for all of 2025, a recent analysis showed.

Those countries could become allies if Beijing puts tariffs on the agenda. "China is likely to find support from Brazil, India, South Africa and other developing countries concerned about the costs and market-access effects of climate-related trade measures," Tu said.

Will China actually take the chair?

China has generally held back from agenda-setting at forums such as Cop. Kate Logan of the Asia Society Policy Institute notes Beijing has been ambivalent about a global electrification target — even though it would easily meet one — partly from aversion to prescriptive outside targets and partly to manage the divergent interests of its global south partners.

"I still think there is a mismatch between Chinese policymakers' views on the role that China can play in global climate governance and international expectations on the influence that China should exert," said Yixian Sun, a professor of sustainability governance at the University of Bath. If the world wants Chinese leadership, he argues, it must extend more trust: "They have to be ready to accept China's leadership, and I don't think this is the case, especially for global north countries."

Li Shuo of the Asia Society Policy Institute frames the question Cop31 must answer: "In a world where climate action was once seen as a constraint on growth but is now increasingly a driver of it, China faces a singular question: will it step into a leadership role not out of obligation, but out of self-interest?"

The milestone to watch: analysts will track China's climate finance commitments, its support for a "just transition" framework protecting workers, and any signal that Beijing will bid to host Cop33 in 2028. Officials are said to be weighing whether hosting would be beneficial. For now, Logan said, China would settle for a summit "that doesn't necessarily produce anything monumental, but comes out with a relatively cooperative outcome. So no major drama."