The European Union treated 64.8 million tonnes less waste than its incineration infrastructure could process in 2022, according to a study published on 13 October by consultancy Equanimator for Zero Waste Europe. The finding anchors a renewed call for a moratorium on new energy-from-waste plants across the bloc.

The study compares reported EU capacity of 198.4 million tonnes with 133.6 million tonnes of waste actually treated. Zero Waste Europe wants policymakers to halt permits for new plants, retire excess capacity in a coordinated fashion, and bring municipal waste incineration into the EU Emissions Trading System without free allowances.

The verdict from the campaign group is blunt. Janek Vähk, Zero Waste Europe's Zero Pollution Policy Manager, said: "There is really no justification for continuing to build new incinerators."

What does the study actually measure?

The 64.8 million-tonne gap is broad by design. The capacity figure covers incineration classified as energy recovery or disposal, plus co-incineration installations such as cement kilns burning waste-derived fuel. The treatment figures include both hazardous and non-hazardous waste streams.

The authors themselves flag the limits of the arithmetic. Available waste may not match the type of facility holding the unused capacity. Permitted capacity at some co-incineration installations may exceed what those plants can realistically process, and waste characteristics can affect throughput.

In plain words: the surplus is a headline number built on heterogeneous plant categories, and the study says so.

How much new capacity is in the pipeline?

Zero Waste Europe counts plans for new or expanded plants adding at least another eight million tonnes of capacity across the EU. The organisation argues that further investment risks locking in long-term demand for waste that could otherwise be prevented, reused or recycled — plants, once built, need feeding.

The study models scenarios in which waste shifts away from landfill, recycling rates rise, and more mixed waste undergoes sorting before treatment. Under those assumptions, it concludes the EU would need no additional incineration capacity in aggregate.

The qualification matters. National needs differ. The authors concede that some member states would still require additional treatment capacity other than landfill, and they recommend moratoria only where excess capacity already exists.

What does the industry say?

CEWEP, the association representing European waste-to-energy operators, has consistently pushed back on this line of argument. It maintains that energy recovery provides a necessary service for non-recyclable waste, including rejects from recycling processes. In a statement published on 17 July, the association called for emissions policy to respect the waste hierarchy and avoid unintended environmental consequences.

The dispute is structural rather than rhetorical. Campaign groups see spare capacity as evidence of overbuild; operators see it as a function of mixed-waste composition and the residual stream that recycling cannot absorb.

What happens next?

The policy test comes in Brussels. Zero Waste Europe's demands — a permitting moratorium, coordinated retirement of surplus plants, and ETS coverage of municipal incineration without free allowances — would each require legislative action by the European Commission and member states.

For now, the eight million tonnes of planned capacity remains announced rather than built. Whether it gets permitted, or stranded at the drawing board, is the milestone to watch.

By Olivia Hart