Fossil-fired power equipped with carbon capture and storage could deliver between 450 and 1,700 TWh per year across Europe in 2050 — 6% to 21% of the electricity mix — according to a modelling study published in Communications Sustainability on 20 February 2026. In three of the four scenarios tested, that abated output exceeds the 1,064 TWh of unabated fossil generation Europe produces today.

The study, led by Shamim Homaei of the Norwegian University of Science and Technology with colleagues at NTNU and SINTEF Energy Research, uses the open-source EMPIRE capacity expansion model covering 31 European countries, 14 North Sea offshore wind areas and a 2020–2060 planning horizon. The headline case requires capturing roughly 1.5 Gt of CO2 per year from power plants by 2050.

The critical variable is capture rate. Conventional CCS plants capture 85–90% of flue gas CO2, leaving residual emissions that clash with a net-zero cap. The study models "CCS-high" variants — 99.7% capture for coal and lignite, 99.1% for gas — which pilot testing has already confirmed as feasible. The incremental cost is modest: capital costs rise 1.4% for lignite CCS-high over standard CCS (2.3% for gas), fixed O&M by 1.2–2%, and variable O&M by 8–20%, against an efficiency penalty of 1.5–2.2 percentage points.

Scenario results diverge sharply on siting and deadlines.

In the base scenario, wind reaches 4,025 TWh and solar 1,655 TWh by 2050, lifting renewables to 79% of generation (from 61% today). Standard-CCS plants produce 955 TWh by 2040, while high-capture CCS, deployed from 2035, reaches 934 TWh by 2050 — 87% of it from lignite plants. Combined CCS output is 1,701 TWh, 21% of the mix and 60% more electricity than unabated fossil produces now.

The conventional scenario, which excludes high-capture rates, produces 13% less CCS electricity (1,477 TWh) and doubles lignite-with-biomass-co-firing output to roughly 1,308 TWh — intensifying competition for sustainable biomass, which the ENSPRESO dataset caps at 2,230 TWh-equivalent Europe-wide across all sectors in 2050.

The no-fossil-2040 scenario, reflecting current phase-out proposals, triggers a surge of CCS investment in 2035–2040 ahead of the investment ban. CCS output still reaches 1,112 TWh in 2050 — above today's unabated fossil generation.

The limited-CCS scenario restricts fossil investment with CCS to the four countries with large offshore storage capacity — Denmark, Great Britain, the Netherlands and Norway. CCS output falls to a maximum of 450 TWh per year, 60–74% below other scenarios, forcing 38% more solar capacity (1,744 GW) and 33% more wind (2,693 GW). Cumulative system cost rises 6%, or €220 billion, to roughly €3,943 billion against the base case's €3,723 billion — a penalty concentrated in the excluded countries, Germany above all.

Geography concentrates the build-out. Germany generates the most high-capture CCS power at 625 TWh per year, followed by Poland (105 TWh) and the Czech Republic (50 TWh). Standard CCS spreads more widely, with Italy leading at 166 TWh per year, largely through biomass co-firing. Notably, 318–445 GW of unabated fossil capacity — mostly gas — remains installed in 2050 in most scenarios, running at 1–2% utilisation to cover peak demand more cheaply than overbuilt renewables and storage.

Carbon price is the decisive variable. Modelled CO2 prices indicate current EU ETS levels suffice until 2035–2040. Meeting a 95% reduction target in 2050 requires €200–250 per tonne in the 2040s — roughly triple today's levels but consistent with published ETS forecasts. For 2050–2055, prices range from €250 to €1,300 per tonne depending on the target, with high-capture CCS cutting the required price by €50–250 per tonne.

Trading off against direct air capture costs, the authors conclude full power-sector decarbonisation is not cost-optimal. The efficient 2050 reduction level sits between 92.5% and 97%, leaving 44–120 MtCO2 per year of residual emissions for carbon dioxide removal at €300–600 per tonne. Adding the 275 MtCO2 per year cited in the EU's Industrial Carbon Management Strategy, Europe must capture 319–395 MtCO2 annually from biogenic or atmospheric sources by 2050 — half destined for permanent storage, half for carbon-based products.

What happens next turns on three trackable commitments: whether capture rates above 99% move from pilot to commercial scale before the 2035–2040 investment window identified by the model, whether CO2 transport and storage infrastructure accelerates beyond the current project pipeline to handle 1.5 GtCO2 per year, and whether EU ETS prices follow the €200–250 per tonne trajectory the 2040s scenarios demand.