Indonesia and Japan Eye Forest Carbon Expansion Under JCM at COP31

Japan aims to procure roughly 100 million tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2030, and Indonesia wants to supply a share of it from peatland restoration, mangrove protection and forest rehabilitation projects under negotiation between the two governments.

The talks took place at the COP31 climate conference in Antalya, Türkiye, where Indonesia's Deputy Forestry Minister Rohmat Marzuki met Japan's Deputy Environment Minister Hiroshi Ono, as reported by the Indonesian news portal Tempo. The vehicle under discussion is the Joint Crediting Mechanism, or JCM, together with Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

For Indonesia, the numbers are land-area numbers. Jakarta outlined four priorities for the partnership:

• Restoring 12 million hectares (nearly 30 million acres) of degraded land through carbon removal projects.
• Protecting 50 million hectares (more than 123 million acres) of forests from deforestation and degradation.
• Integrating carbon activities into 8.3 million hectares (some 20 million acres) covered by social forestry.
• Developing projects across 1.4 million hectares (3.5 million acres) of customary forests.

Each figure represents built or designated capacity in Indonesia's land-restoration planning, not yet contracted project volume under the JCM. The negotiations at COP31 are exploratory; no finalized project pipeline, credit volume or investment sum has been announced.

What does this change for the carbon credit market?

The demand side is the anchor. Japan's Green Transformation Emissions Trading System, or GX-ETS, entered its mandatory phase in 2026, giving Japanese emitters a compliance instrument that requires credits. Tokyo's stated procurement target of about 100 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030 creates a quantified demand pool, and Indonesia positions nature-based projects — including the rehabilitation of degraded landscapes — as a supply route into it.

The JCM could connect that Japanese demand with Indonesia's restoration priorities, potentially attracting investment for conservation and local development alongside climate mitigation, according to the Indonesian framing of the talks.

Peatlands and mangroves are expected to feature prominently in the proposed cooperation. Indonesian officials said projects should deliver measurable gains in biodiversity, ecosystem resilience and community welfare, rather than being assessed solely on the volume of carbon removed or avoided — a signal that Jakarta intends to apply integrity criteria beyond tonnage when structuring deals.

Rohmat said the government wanted peatland and mangrove initiatives to become defining elements of the bilateral forestry partnership. Indonesia also wants to develop projects that generate high-integrity carbon credits while directing economic benefits to communities.

The milestone to watch

Two developments will decide whether these talks become contracted project volume. The first is the regulatory one: Indonesia has been working on new rules to boost its forestry carbon market, and the design of how JCM credits from land-based projects will be authorized under Article 6 will determine what can actually be counted toward Japan's targets. The second is commercial: whether GX-ETS compliance buyers commit capital to Indonesian peatland and mangrove projects ahead of the 2030 procurement deadline.

Until credit purchase agreements or authorized project registrations appear, the four land-area priorities — 12 million, 50 million, 8.3 million and 1.4 million hectares respectively — remain national restoration commitments in search of a buyer, and Japan's 100-million-tonne figure remains a demand target in search of supply.