Lagos sets 90-95% flood control target for 2027 rainy season

Lagos State has set a target of 90 to 95 per cent success in flood control ahead of the 2027 rainy season, up from the 75 to 80 per cent the government says it has achieved over the past few years. The figure anchors a programme built on resilient infrastructure, year-round drainage maintenance and a tightening set of waste policies aimed at keeping plastic out of the channels.

Commissioner for the Environment and Water Resources Tokunbo Wahab disclosed the target on Saturday during an inspection of projects and disputed sites in Oregun, Surulere and Osborne Foreshore Estate, Ikoyi.

What is the state actually committing to?

Wahab tied the improvement plan to two concrete instruments: drainage infrastructure the state is putting in place, and the Emergency Flood Abatement Gang, which he said now works all year round rather than seasonally.

"The target is to move above 75 to 80 per cent, up to 90 or 95 per cent. That is why this governor and his deputy have been deliberate in all facets: putting resilient infrastructure in place and deploying the Emergency Flood Abatement Gang to work all year round," he said.

He drew one firm line, however. Lagos cannot eliminate flooding. The state sits on the coast, with some areas below sea level, and tidal movements, heavy rainfall and rising sea levels will continue to produce flash events.

"You can't have 100 per cent success against flooding unless you want to play the ostrich," Wahab said. "It is scientifically proven that a coastal state with some areas below sea level will experience tidal locks when there is heavy rainfall, excessive heat and sea level rise."

His advice to residents was blunt: when flash flooding occurs, hold back for one or two hours and the water will recede. The infrastructure being installed, he said, is resilient enough to help the state deflood substantially.

The honesty is welcome. A coastal megacity that promises zero flooding is selling a forecast it cannot deliver.

How does waste policy fit the drainage plan?

The ministry is pairing hard infrastructure with upstream material controls. Wahab cited the state's ban on Styrofoam and its effort to phase out single-use plastics as deliberate, scientifically driven policies designed to stop waste from blocking drainage channels.

"These are policies that were deliberate, scientifically driven, and we are glad we did what we had to do without allowing politics to cloud our sense of judgment," he said.

He also flagged the unusually hot weather associated with the El Niño season and advised residents to stay hydrated, noting that changing conditions form part of a global pattern linked to climate change, with flooding recorded in other parts of the world.

What did the site inspections find?

The Saturday tour covered three disputes, each with a different verdict.

• Oregun Mixed-Use Scheme. Property owners complained that auto mechanics had occupied parts of their land and encroached on a natural drainage route known as System One. The ministry assured the owners that their government-approved titles and Certificates of Occupancy were secure, and directed the mechanics to vacate the affected land.
• Surulere. A petition alleged that construction by the Lagos State Development and Property Corporation had encroached on the right-of-way of a drainage channel. The ministry invited the agency's managing director and took physical measurements with stakeholders present. "They were not anywhere near the right-of-way, and there was no encroachment on our drainage channel," Wahab said. The ministry had approved a culvert for the development and confirmed it matched the approved design.
• Osborne Foreshore Estate, Ikoyi. On the third ministry visit to the project point, including one last weekend with the Deputy Governor following sanitation work, Wahab confirmed no encroachment on the government's drainage alignment. The ministry advised those involved not to remove a culvert installed for safety reasons, and said high-tension cables in the area were unaffected.

What is the background at Abba Court?

The Ikoyi inspection follows a recent controversy over development at Abba Court, on Mahogany Close, involving Kenshad International Limited. The Guardian reported on November 3 that Deputy Governor Obafemi Hamzat and a delegation waited more than 30 minutes on 31 October because the entrance to the disputed site remained locked during an inspection visit.

Residents had alleged that the developer carried out construction beneath high-tension electricity lines, covered part of a canal with concrete slabs and narrowed water outlets through sand-filling, warning the obstruction could disrupt drainage and raise flood risk.

Developer Ken Ukaoha denied deliberately locking out the deputy governor, saying the site was closed because workers had been told to stay away following a circular from the estate management. He also denied obstructing the drainage channel or violating planning regulations.

The 2027 rainy season now sets the clock. Whether Lagos moves from 80 to 95 per cent will be measured in receding water, not communiqués.