Nine States Hold 158.6 GW of Data Center Pipeline Under Pause Threat

Nine US states whose governors or governors-elect have backed or imposed data center construction pauses account for 158.6 gigawatts of planned capacity — 41% of the national development pipeline. Texas alone holds 88.4 GW, more than half the capacity across those nine states, and its incoming governor campaigned on a broader moratorium than the permit freeze already in force.

The tally, which includes both campaign pledges and pauses already in place, signals trouble for hardware deployment schedules. For the IT asset disposition sector, the timing question is blunt: delayed construction today means delayed decommissioning tomorrow.

What did the November election change?

The market reacted fast. Shares of AI cloud provider CoreWeave fell 9.9% the day after the midterm election, and Applied Digital dropped 6.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 1.6%. Later that week, CoreWeave asked Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa's transition team to work with the company on completing projects that already hold permits and on setting rules for future development.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott had already directed the state environmental agency to stop issuing data center permits pending a review by the state's power grid operator. Analysts expected permitting to resume once the review, due to finish in December, was complete. Hinojosa takes office in January and wants a broader moratorium while lawmakers give communities more say over construction.

Industry analysts say the prospect of a moratorium alone gives developers a reason to look at other states. They expect a short-term slowdown in Texas, followed by renewed growth. Expectation is not entitlement.

Where does the decommissioning stream stand?

Linda Li, chief strategy officer at Re-Teck, an ITAD and electronics recycling company owned by Hong Kong-based Li-Tong Group, expects the first substantial round of GPU-dense server retirements between 2026 and 2029, based on systems deployed from 2022 through 2024. She expects that equipment to leave service in stages as operators switch to more power-efficient accelerators.

The refresh math complicates the forecast. JLL puts the typical refresh cycle for GPUs, CPUs and networking infrastructure at about five years, and in some AI applications performance gains make GPU replacement economical after two to four years. That arithmetic pushes the first retirements from projects now awaiting permits beyond much of the 2026–29 window Li identified for equipment already in service.

Which local decisions are shaping the map?

Three jurisdictions moved in November. In Georgia, Effingham County commissioners near Savannah voted Nov. 3 to defer a decision on OpenAI's Project Camellia site plan until Nov. 17, citing wetlands and noise concerns for nearby homes. OpenAI plans to draw 3.2 gigawatts from Georgia Power in phases between 2028 and 2032.

In Ashburn, Virginia, Amazon Web Services told Loudoun County it intends to withdraw its data center application for the former George Washington University campus. Under a preliminary agreement announced Oct. 20, the county would fast-track rezoning for housing and mixed-use development on most of the property.

New York remains partway through a one-year data center moratorium that Governor Kathy Hochul passed over the summer. She won another four years in the midterm. No one has said what happens when the year runs out, and some state legislators are calling for more restrictions, if not an outright ban.

What happens next?

Uncertainty dominates. The buildout is likely to slow as developers negotiate tougher terms with utilities and communities. Regulators are pressing companies to cover the cost of grid upgrades. Residents want enforceable commitments on water use and noise, plus a clear account of what their towns stand to gain.

Some developers will have to redesign projects to win local support. Others will move them or drop them. The first wave of AI server retirements is still expected through 2029, based on equipment already in service. Beyond that, local decisions will push decommissioning work out of some markets and into others. The date to watch is January, when Hinojosa takes office in Texas.