U.S. data center power demand will more than quadruple from 40 gigawatts in 2025 to 169 gigawatts by 2030, pushing sector-related carbon dioxide emissions from roughly 90 million metric tons per year to more than 404 million metric tons annually without new mitigation, according to a study co-authored by researchers at Rice University and published July 13 in Energy & Fuels.

The analysis was produced by Hon Chung Lau, adjunct professor in Rice's Department of Chemical and Biomolecular Engineering and founder of Low Carbon Energies LLC, together with Steve C. Tsai, an energy transition consultant at the same firm. The two built the model from publicly announced U.S. data center projects, layering in each state's prevailing electricity mix and holding that mix constant through 2030.

How large is the projected emissions jump?

The headline figure is a 4x rise in five years. Lau and Tsai put U.S. data center power capacity at 40 GW in 2025 and 169 GW in 2030. Emissions tied to fossil generation feeding those loads scale accordingly:

• 2025 baseline: ~90 million metric tons CO2/year
• 2030 projection: >404 million metric tons CO2/year
• Net five-year delta: ~314 million metric tons/year

Where will the new demand concentrate?

The authors flagged eight states as the principal growth markets, with Texas the single largest build-out:

• Texas
• Virginia
• Pennsylvania
• Ohio
• Arizona
• Colorado
• Utah
• Illinois

Texas alone would need an additional 25 GW of power capacity by 2030 to meet projected data center demand, the study estimates.

What role for carbon capture and storage?

Lau and Tsai examined whether saline aquifers could absorb data-center-related CO2 over the long term. They concluded that 34 states hold enough underground storage capacity to sequester more than 100 years of projected post-2030 emissions.

Sequestration potential in 2025:

• 59 million metric tons sequesterable — ~66% of sector emissions

Sequestration potential in 2030:

• 299 million metric tons sequesterable — ~74% of sector emissions

When out-of-state transport is included, more than 90% of data center-related CO2 could be mitigated through CCS, the authors reported. Lau framed natural gas combined cycle plants equipped with capture and storage as the most practical near-term low-carbon option for round-the-clock data center loads, citing domestic gas supply, lower CO2 intensity versus coal, and proximity to saline formations in major growth states.

"Data centers are becoming one of the defining energy challenges of the AI era," Lau said. "The question is not only whether we can build enough computing infrastructure, but whether we can power it in a way that is reliable, affordable and compatible with decarbonization goals."

What are the study's limits?

The authors flagged two conservative assumptions:

1. Only data centers with publicly disclosed power requirements were counted.
2. When a company did not name a power source, the state grid mix was applied and held flat through 2030.

Lau characterized the analysis as a state-by-state planning tool, not a forecast. The model excludes demand response, behind-the-meter renewables, and the grid-decarbonization pathways already embedded in utility integrated resource plans.

"This does not mean carbon capture is the only solution," Lau said. "But it does show that the geology exists to make a meaningful impact, especially in states where data center growth is strongest."

What milestone decides whether 90% mitigation is reachable?

The authors identify permitting — not geology — as the binding constraint. Reaching the modeled 90% mitigation ceiling before the 2030 demand surge arrives hinges on two parallel tracks:

• State public utility commission approvals for new gas-plus-CCS generation
• Federal and state permits for Class VI injection wells and any interstate CO2 pipeline capacity

Whether those tracks clear in time for the 169 GW build-out will determine if the 299 million metric tons of theoretical 2030 storage converts into actual atmospheric displacement.