Carbon credit buyers' target portfolio prices have roughly tripled since 2022, according to a new Boston Consulting Group survey of roughly 300 voluntary market participants — a repricing that sits well ahead of the modest movement in publicly reported average transaction prices.

The numbers behind the shift are stark. In BCG's 2022 survey, 84% of buyers aimed to pay $30 or less per metric ton, and just 3% targeted prices above $50. By early 2026, about one in five buyers still targeted prices below $25, while roughly one in four were targeting $51 to $100 per ton. A premium segment of the buyer base is now prepared to pay more than $100 per tonne.

The repricing is not uniform. It reflects widening differentiation between credit qualities rather than a rising tide across the whole market. BCG found that the proportion of retired credits rated BBB+ or higher doubled from 12% in 2020 to 24% in 2025. Those higher-rated credits now command prices four to five times higher than lower-rated instruments.

Supply mix shifts toward superpollutants

Issuance is changing shape at the same time. Superpollutant projects — those targeting methane and refrigerants — represented roughly one-fifth of credits issued in 2025, according to BCG. Issuance of legacy renewable-energy and REDD+ credits has declined over the same period.

The result is a more fragmented market, particularly in carbon removals. Suppliers of durable removal technologies such as direct air capture and enhanced rock weathering continue to seek prices well above what many mainstream buyers will pay. In other segments, the problem inverts: companies hold procurement budgets but cannot find credits that meet their quality requirements.

Market balance tightens

Broader market data points to a tightening supply-demand balance. Climate Focus reported that global carbon credit retirements reached 98 million tonnes during the first half of 2026, while issuance fell to just under 100 million tonnes. The organization expects around 200 million credits to be issued for the full year — the lowest annual issuance level since 2019.

Falling issuance combined with growing demand from both voluntary and compliance channels could put further pressure on companies to raise their carbon procurement budgets. BCG flagged two policy-driven demand sources that traditional voluntary-market retirement figures do not fully capture: international aviation's CORSIA scheme and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement.

Budget assumptions out of date

For corporate buyers, the practical consequence is that climate procurement budgets built on older pricing assumptions underestimate the cost of securing the credit qualities companies increasingly want. BCG said buyers still planning around its 2022 pricing assumptions could find that meeting future climate goals costs substantially more than anticipated.

The quality premium also raises the stakes for project developers positioned in methane destruction, refrigerant management and durable removals — segments where rated supply remains thin relative to announced demand. Developers of legacy renewable-energy credits face the opposite trajectory, with issuance already in decline.

The milestone to watch is full-year 2026 issuance. If Climate Focus's projection of roughly 200 million credits holds, the market will post its lowest supply since 2019 just as CORSIA's first compliance phases and Article 6 implementation channels add demand outside the voluntary retirement data — a combination that will decide whether the premiums BCG documents become the market's new baseline.