COP31’s 35-by-35 electrification pledge meets a global power gap

By Olivia Hart

Only 23% of global final energy demand comes from electricity, and the COP31 presidency wants 35% by 2035. The pledge was launched at the United Nations climate summit in Turkey, where the presidency includes Australian Climate and Energy Minister Chris Bowen and Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum.

The presidency has invited other countries to sign the “35-by-35” pledge. It covers transport, buildings and industry, not only cars. Transport still burns petrol, buildings rely on gas, and industrial processes burn coal and gas; the pledge seeks to replace that direct fossil-fuel use with electricity, increasingly from renewable generation.

“Final energy demand” means energy that reaches users such as households and factories. That distinction makes 35-by-35 a power-system target rather than a vehicle target. It also requires stronger grids, storage, cleaner generation and faster deployment of electric equipment.

What does the 35-by-35 pledge require?

Climate Resource’s analysis of newly published global climate scenarios puts 35% at the median of 10 low-warming pathways. Anita Talberg and her colleagues focused on those 10 paths. Each would peak at around 1.7°C or less and return to 1.5°C or below by 2100.

Those paths offer the best remaining chance of returning global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century.

Across the 10 paths, electricity’s share of global final energy rises from about 23% in 2025 to a median of 28% in 2030 and 35% in 2035. A median is the middle value in the dataset.

The pledge has something rarer than a summit slogan: a median. Talberg said: “35% is not an arbitrary political ambition.”

The 2035 target has evidence behind it, but only if real-world deployment follows the modeled path.

Why does the 1.5°C target still matter?

The analysis says the world has run out of time to limit warming to 1.5°C without temporarily overshooting it. Even with decisive emissions cuts, the latest scenarios put temperatures above 1.5°C for at least a decade.

The best modeled outcome now has warming peak at around 1.7°C in the 2040s before returning to 1.5°C by 2100. The analysis calls this temporary excess an “overshoot.”

The longer and higher temperatures remain above 1.5°C, the greater the risks to people and nature. The UN Environment Programme says the world cannot yet remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at the scale required to reverse that excess.

Rapid emissions cuts therefore matter now; the analysis warns against relying on future technology to undo the damage. The climate case rests on cutting emissions now, not waiting for technology to erase the overshoot.

Does electrification work beyond electric cars?

The International Energy Agency reports that electric technologies use energy more efficiently than fossil-fuelled equivalents. Electric cars convert more energy into movement than petrol cars, while heat pumps can deliver several units of heat for each unit of electricity consumed.

An International Renewable Energy Agency analysis explains the reinforcing effect. As power generation shifts toward wind, solar and other low-emission sources, renewable energy cuts power-sector emissions and electrification creates more demand for renewables.

The pledge also sits beside the commitments made at COP28 in Dubai three years ago: triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030.

The climate benefit falls if petrol, coal and gas are replaced with fossil-generated electricity. New climate scenarios nevertheless show that renewable energy and electrification can reinforce each other. As renewable electricity expands, switching transport, buildings and industry becomes more economically viable. Electrification helps most when cleaner power expands with it.

Can the world reach 35% by 2035?

The International Energy Agency projects that electricity will supply just under 30% of final energy by 2035 under existing global climate policies. That leaves a five-percentage-point gap against the modeled median.

Technology is not waiting at the starting line. One in four new cars sold globally in 2025 was electric, according to the IEA. Ember says up to three-quarters of global energy demand could be electrified using existing technologies.

Deployment is the larger problem. The source calls for greater investment in electricity grids and storage, policies that encourage households and businesses to switch from gas to electric devices, and affordable finance, particularly in developing countries.

There are also economic and security reasons to move faster. Countries dependent on imported oil and gas remain exposed when prices spike, as they did this year during the US-Iran conflict. Domestic renewable electricity can reduce that dependence, while efficient electric technologies lower overall energy demand. The technology gap is smaller than the investment and policy gap.

What must COP31 deliver next?

Talberg’s analysis puts the operating condition plainly: “Electricity must become cleaner” as demand grows, reducing emissions and air pollution, while fossil fuel use declines rapidly. The 35-by-35 pledge is one part of a larger transformation alongside renewable energy and energy efficiency.

At COP31, the politics are easier than the power-system work. Talberg set the test: “The question at COP31 this week is whether governments are prepared to put the policies, investment and cooperation in place to make it happen.”

Talberg is an honorary fellow at Melbourne Climate Futures at the University of Melbourne and works for Climate Resource, which received Australian government funding to prepare research informing COP31 electrification discussions.

The decisive milestone is country sign-up at COP31, backed by policies, grid investment and finance that move electricity beyond the IEA’s current-policy path.