Dutch nature-based carbon developer Green Earth reported a carbon credit sales pipeline exceeding $56 million at the end of September, with firm contracted future sales reaching $53 million — up from $47 million at the end of June.

The company said the firm order book stood at roughly $53 million (€50 million) on Sept. 30, a jump of more than 23-fold from the end of 2025, according to figures released by the developer. Including the potential value of an option attached to its Uganda project, the broader pipeline moved above $56 million.

The growth tracks a structural shift in how carbon credits trade. Buyers increasingly use long-term offtake agreements to secure future supply rather than relying on the spot market.

Uganda deal anchors the order book

A major contributor to the quarter's expansion is an agreement covering Green Earth's Bulindi Agroforestry and Chimpanzee Conservation Project in Uganda. The contract represents about $4.8 million of firm future sales, with deliveries scheduled from 2027 through 2031.

The agreement also grants the buyer an option for additional volumes through 2035. If fully exercised, the firm commitment and option would carry a combined potential value of about $16.3 million. Green Earth excludes the option volumes from its firm order book, keeping the two figures distinct.

Green Earth also holds a long-term agreement covering its Mount Kenya Regenerative Agroforestry Project. That deal spans more than 1.5 million projected credits over 15 years, subject to verification and certification, with first issuance expected in 2027.

"Our focus is now firmly on execution," Green Earth CEO Selwyn Duijvestijn said in the announcement. "Contracts create visibility, but implementation, verification, issuance, and delivery ultimately create value. With planting preparations advancing in Uganda, promising survival results in Kazakhstan, and the first agricultural products already being harvested and sold in Kenya, we are building the operational foundation required to deliver on the commercial commitments we have secured."

Buyers move upstream

Green Earth's numbers reflect a wider market pattern. Carbon buyers now commit to future supply rather than purchasing exclusively on the spot market, according to market analysts.

Sylvera reported that disclosed forward offtake volumes fell sharply year over year during the first half of 2026 — but volumes excluding Microsoft rose 73% to 12 million tonnes. The single-buyer distortion underscores how concentrated demand remains even as the underlying trend points toward longer-term contracting.

MSCI has also flagged the growing importance of forward deals, noting that buyers use agreements for future delivery to lock in supply, price and quality. For developers, that means the bottleneck is shifting from sales to delivery infrastructure.

Execution gap is the next milestone

The numbers Green Earth disclosed are contracted future sales, not issued credits. The company's own framing acknowledges the distance between the two. Its stated priorities for the fourth quarter cover project implementation, monitoring, verification and credit issuance across its portfolio.

The Mount Kenya project alone carries a 2027 first-issuance target for 1.5 million projected credits, and the Bulindi deliveries run through 2031, with option volumes extending to 2035. Each of those deadlines now functions as a trackable commitment rather than a projection.

For Green Earth, the test is no longer commercial. The $53 million order book is secured on paper. The deciding milestone is whether verification and issuance on the Uganda and Kenya projects convert those contracts into delivered credits on schedule — starting with the verification cycle the company has queued for the fourth quarter.