IEA Chief Declares 'Age of Electricity' as 12,000 GW Buildout Looms

The world added about 5,000 gigawatts of electricity generation over the last decade, and the International Energy Agency expects at least 12,000 GW more in the next ten years — a more than twofold acceleration, on a conservative estimate. That is the headline number IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol delivered at the Cop31 UN climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, where delegates from 185 countries are meeting this week and next.

"We will still use oil and gas, but the dominant source of energy is becoming electricity," Birol told the Guardian in an interview at the summit. In his framing, the coal, oil and gas era is over and the world is now firmly in "the age of electricity."

The numbers behind the shift are stacking up fast. Outside China, electric car sales rose 60% in the last nine months, according to IEA data. Five years ago, EVs accounted for only 5% of all cars sold; this year the agency expects roughly one in three. Electric trucks are next, and Birol says that will displace a significant amount of oil.

What is Cop31 deciding?

A resolution on the table in Antalya would commit the world to deriving 35% of final energy from electricity by 2035 — potentially one of the most consequential levers for decarbonising economies by mid-century. Birol has worked closely with the Turkish and Australian governments, which jointly hold this year's presidency, and says most countries back the goal.

"It will be an unmistakable signal to the markets and investors that governments see that the future of energy is in electricity," he said. "This will make the age of electricity even earlier and cheaper. It might be one of the most consequential decisions coming from Cops in the last several years."

Consensus rules at the talks, though, and Saudi Arabia and Russia are reported to oppose the resolution — meaning a small number of countries can hold the rest to ransom. Even so, Birol insists the buildout continues regardless, because the demand drivers do not depend on a summit text.

What is driving demand?

Birol named three forces:

• AI and datacentres
• Electrification of transport
• Air conditioning — "the most important one in terms of volume"

"Air conditioners are growing explosively," he said. About 90% of US households have air conditioning, against fewer than 20% in India and roughly 5% in Nigeria. "With the increasing effects of climate change, and if they have more money, [people] buy air conditioners."

The baseline matters for tracking the transition. Electricity currently meets about a quarter of most energy needs; fossil fuels supply three-quarters of final energy worldwide, mostly for transport, heating and industry. Because fossil fuel combustion wastes most energy as heat, electrified activities need only about half the energy input to do the same job — a built-in efficiency dividend as the shift proceeds.

Global electricity demand is growing three times faster than total energy demand, Birol said. "And it is impossible to stop it. The one and only issue is making electricity affordable for people." Countries are also racing to secure supply against fossil fuel price volatility and shocks such as the Iran war, which strengthens the case for domestically generated power.

On the UK's high power prices, he was blunt: "The single most important reason why UK electricity prices may be on the high side is reliance on imported gas. Gas prices went up, so did the electricity prices, full stop. And the solution is not importing more gas, but building more [renewable] electricity at home."

The milestone to watch is the Cop31 decision text: if the 35%-by-2035 electrification pledge survives consensus, the demand signal to investors gets locked in; if not, Birol's argument is that the market moves anyway.