Norway wants to raise its budget for international carbon credits purchased outside the EU from NOK 15 billion to NOK 26.1 billion — an increase of NOK 11 billion, roughly $1.1 billion — as regulatory friction with Brussels puts its 2035 climate targets at risk.

The request for legislative authorization appears in the government's Climate Status and Plan for 2027, known as the "Green Book," and marks a significant de-risking move by Oslo. Instead of relying solely on joint climate mechanisms with the European Union, Norway will channel more money into Article 6 carbon credits under the Paris Agreement, financing emission reduction projects beyond the European economic bloc.

Climate and Environment Minister Sigrun Gjerløw Aasland confirmed the government sees a real chance of missing its goals. "There is still a risk that we do not reach the climate targets. Therefore, the government strengthens both efforts to reduce national emissions, and cooperation to cut emissions internationally," Aasland said.

Why is Norway buying its way outside the EU system?

The spending hike stems from a structural mismatch. Norway has committed, under the Paris Agreement, to cut emissions by 70–75% by 2035 — a stricter reduction target than the baseline EU framework. That ambition gap leaves Oslo exposed if European mechanisms deliver less than expected.

And the uncertainty is real. The European Commission has yet to submit its full draft regulations for 2035 and 2040, and projections for how much structural emission reduction the EU system will actually deliver range between 66.25% and 72.5% by 2035. That wide variance makes national planning difficult.

A slower-than-expected tightening of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) quota cap compounds the problem. European mechanisms may now contribute less toward Norway's Paris targets than initially assumed when Oslo structured its climate pathway around joint execution with the EU.

What does the Green Book actually say?

The Ministry of Climate and Environment states plainly that calculating the exact economic cost of achieving Norway's targets remains impossible until the European Commission submits its complete draft regulations for 2040. An updated cost assessment is scheduled for the 2028 edition of the climate plan.

For the carbon market, the immediate takeaways are:

• The Article 6 credit allocation rises from NOK 15 billion to NOK 26.1 billion, pending parliamentary approval.
• The increase of NOK 11 billion (~$1.1 billion) covers credits bought outside the EU framework.
• Norway's 2035 target of 70–75% emission cuts exceeds what current EU mechanisms are projected to deliver (66.25–72.5%).
• A revised cost estimate follows in the 2028 climate plan, once Brussels publishes its 2040 draft rules.

What happens next?

Two milestones now decide the trajectory of this budget line. First, the Norwegian legislature must approve the expanded NOK 26.1 billion authorization. Second, the European Commission's pending 2035 and 2040 regulatory proposals will determine how much of Norway's target the EU system can absorb — and how much Oslo must cover through non-EU Article 6 purchases.

Until Brussels tables those drafts, the NOK 11 billion increase stands as a hedge against a widening gap between Norwegian ambition and European delivery.