Lagos puts $50bn climate project pipeline before investors

By Olivia Hart

Lagos State Government has identified more than 300 potential climate projects worth an estimated $25 billion to $50 billion, according to a Wednesday statement from the media office of the Office of the Special Adviser on Climate Change and Circular Economy.

Titilayo Oshodi, special adviser to the governor, disclosed the pipeline Tuesday during the 31st United Nations Climate Change Conference, COP31, in Antalya, Türkiye. She spoke at the panel “Financing Africa’s Climate Transition: The Role of Cities, Business and Capital for Implementation,” held in the Baku Room of the Sueno Hotels Deluxe Belek Convention and Meeting Centre.

The Lagos programme runs from November 10 to 13 and is due to end with Climate Investment Day on November 13 at IETA BusinessHub. The state is using COP31 to attract local and international investors for its climate transition plans.

Oshodi framed the central problem as a conversion problem rather than a shortage of targets: “Africa already has ambitious climate goals. The difficulty is turning them into projects that can attract public and private money and also deliver jobs and economic growth,” she said.

What does Lagos actually have?

Lagos, a coastal megacity with substantial climate and development pressures, has organized its pipeline around five areas:

• Clean energy and clean cooking
• Blue economy, water and resilience
• Circular economy and industrial decarbonisation
• Infrastructure and urban transition
• Innovation, food and green enterprise

The statement does not identify individual projects, plant sites, financing close dates or committed investments. The circular economy category specifies no recovered-material streams, waste tonnage, processing capacity or operating recycling facility. The $50 billion figure is therefore a prospective investment envelope, not a measure of built capacity or money already deployed.

That is a project menu, not an operating asset base.

What support has Lagos put in place?

The state has developed a State-Determined Contributions Framework to translate Nigeria’s national climate commitments into state-level priorities, targets and investment opportunities. Its aim is to make the pipeline more legible to public agencies, lenders and private investors.

Lagos has also introduced the Climate Finance Preparedness Clinic and DecarbonIQ. The government says the clinic will strengthen financial-sector capacity, while DecarbonIQ will improve measurement, reporting and verification of emissions so investors can assess project performance. The Climate Defence and Catalytic Fund is intended to address early-stage funding gaps and encourage private-sector participation.

The preparation machinery exists; each project still has to pass through it.

Can the projects reach financial close?

Oshodi identified limited climate finance, weak project preparation, inadequate data and difficulty demonstrating project viability as recurring constraints for subnational governments. She said projects need feasible preparation, clear policy frameworks, credible financial structures, feasibility studies, revenue models and risk assessments before investors can judge returns or reach financial close.

The pipeline must also address projects with high upfront costs or risks that commercial lenders may decline. Oshodi said: “Blended finance matters most for projects with strong climate and development benefits but high upfront costs or risks that put off commercial lenders.”

She said guarantees, concessional funding and early-stage support can reduce those risks and attract private capital. Those tools can improve a proposition, but they do not constitute financial close.

Bankability, not ambition, is the narrow gate.

Who supplies the capital?

Oshodi assigned distinct roles to public and private participants:

• Government should provide policy direction, infrastructure and catalytic funding.
• Private investors should contribute capital, technical expertise and the capacity to scale projects.
• Domestic financial institutions and African businesses should help finance and deliver the pipeline.

The proposed structure depends on public support unlocking commercial money rather than substituting for it. No allocation, guarantee amount or private financing commitment accompanies the $25 billion-to-$50 billion estimate.

Public support can reduce risk, but it does not replace a signed investment.

What must happen in the next 12 months?

Asked what she expected to change within 12 months, Oshodi called for climate finance commitments to become actual investments. She also urged greater domestic funding and stronger support for project preparation and structuring, areas where she said limited finance, weak preparation and poor data have held up investment pipelines across African governments.

The next stated milestone is Climate Investment Day on November 13; the decisive test is financial close on named projects within 12 months.